The media, particularly television, has a profound effect on the development of public consensus which can drive movement in the markets. People believe what they hear in the news, particularly on television. The prognostications of television economists and financial experts bombard the public, molding public opinion and forming consensus. The problem is that the views of only a small number of people are aired, but aired repetitively, lifting their judgments from the realm of personal opinion to widely accepted fact. The savvy futures trader can make use of this phenomenon.

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Futures trading is a risky business. The untrained, unwary, unknowledgeable, undisciplined or sometimes plain unlucky can lose a fortune — and in an agonizingly short time. In fact, the SEC requires futures trading websites to post a disclaimer concerning the potential risks involved in trading commodity futures. You’ll find a full disclosure statement on my Futures Trading Secrets website.

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Futures traders use stop losses to minimize financial risk and prevent unexpected catastrophe. A stop loss is like an insurance policy. As the name implies, its purpose is to stop losses. A powerful money management tool, stop losses allow the savvy futures trader to manage his losses, to keep them small and contained. Properly applied stop losses can mean the difference between success and failure for futures traders.

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Commodities are the raw materials of our world, the natural resources we use to build the things we need and use. Throughout human history, man has exploited our world’s natural resources to improve the quality of human life. Futures traders trade principally in commodities (and in currencies, though that’s not the topic of today’s post). Futures markets allow commercial users to mitigate the risk of fluctuating commodity prices and provide a means for futures traders and investors to profit from those price risks. If you’re going to trade in commodities, you should know a little about them both practically and historically.Our global economy is built on three basic types of commodities, the principal players in the futures market: (more…)

Commodities, like the market, are cyclical in nature, rising and falling according to the current business cycle. Like other market vehicles, commodities are influenced by economic forces. However, unlike other market vehicles, futures traders can trade commodities profitably even in bad times.

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Playing the commodity market is viewed as (and can be) a risky game. Many investors consider commodities the market’s riskiest asset. The truth is that commodities are no riskier than stocks. Certainly there is risk, as there is in any investment. But the risk is no greater in the commodity markets than it is in any other market.

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Futures contracts are complex financial instruments and trading them demands constant daily, even hourly, monitoring. When you trade futures, there are myriad shifting variables that must be monitored continuously. Trading futures is about minimizing risk and maximizing profits. Profits are often made on small price points in an interval of minutes. To make money, you have to be there, in the game, ready to grab an opportunity when it appears.

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We’ve spend some time lately talking about commodities. Anyone who trades futures on the commodity markets ought to know a considerable amount about what they’re trading. But commodities are not futures.

• Commodities are a class of assets that includes energy, metals, agricultural products, natural gas and oil, and other natural resources. Commodities are natural resources, actual physical objects with an inherent value of their own.
• Futures are investment vehicles through which you invest in commodities. Futures can also be used to invest in other asset classes such as currencies, bonds, interest rates, stocks, indexes, etc. Futures have no value in and of themselves. They are known as derivatives because they derive (or take) their value from the underlying financial instrument (i.e., the commodity, currency, stock, etc.)

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Even when the world is at its most turbulent, commodities provide a safe haven for futures traders. Commodities are inelastic goods. In economics, elasticity quantifies how price changes affect supply and demand.

Elastic goods exhibit a high correlation between price and demand. When the price of the good goes up, demand decreases. Elastic goods are generally less-essential goods, meaning that you can live without them or at least use less of them or substitute a less expensive option. The dance between price and demand can be complex. For example, when the cost of milk rises, people buy less milk and fewer milk products. Some people will stop buying milk altogether until the price comes back down. Families with young children who still need milk will serve their children less milk or milk with a lower fat content and, therefore, cheaper price tag. They may substitute enriched soy milk or calcium supplements and calcium-fortified breads and cereals to ensure their children get a full dose of bone-building calcium. Sales on cheese, ice cream and other dairy products will plummet in concert with how necessary they are perceived to be. Ice cream is considered a luxury so when ice cream prices rise, sales fall.

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To succeed as a futures trader, you need to think creatively about commodities. The story of Sam Brannan, California’s first millionaire, serves as an excellent example:

At the beginning of the 1848 Gold Rush, Sam Brannan, who owned a general store in Sutter’s Fort, discovered that John Sutter and James Marshall had discovered gold. Understandably, the discoverers wanted to keep the strike a secret. Brannan agreed, then quietly scoured northern California buying up every shovel, pick and pan he could find until he had cornered the market. He then went around town yelling, “We found gold!” and the Gold Rush was on. Hundreds of people flocked to northern California, all needing shovels, picks and pans to search for gold. And there was Sam, the only source for hundreds of miles around! Sam Brannan never lifted a shovel, never swung a pick, never shifted a pan in the search for gold, but he became the first millionaire of the Gold Rush — selling shovels.

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