Economic comment and media hype direct and create commonly held views. Once a market believes in a commonly held view, it will eventually break sharply against that view. The size of the move in the opposite direction is a function of the level of disappointment in the coming reality. In other words, a gap forms between what public consensus expected to happen and what actually happens in reality.

By observing events, savvy futures traders can make money on the developing gap in two ways:

1. by patiently waiting as consensus builds, then acting as the break in consensus occurs, or
2. by aggressively searching for the contrary scenario that will precipitate the break.

As the public grows disenchanted with the inability of the consensus view to live up to expectations in reality, it will try to protect its investment by moving in an opposite direction. By acting at the point of greatest confusion — the point at which the market starts to turn but before it is in full retreat — can profit, often significantly. The stampede against the formerly held consensus creates a new trend which grows, building a new consensus about the correctness of this new path. Despite the stunned pronouncements of television commentators, who seem to be perpetually caught off guard, the cycle endlessly repeats, creating price points on which savvy futures traders can make money.

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For most futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the following expiration and rollover practices apply:

• Contracts expire on the third Friday of each quarter: March, June, September and December. Contract expiration months are represented by the following letter assignments: March=H, June=M, September=U and December=Z
• Rollover is 8 days before expiration. For example, this month, December 2007, the rollover date is Thursday, December 13.
• Rollover is always on a Thursday. Generally, rollover will be on the second Thursday of the month; however, if the first day of the month begins on a Friday, rollover will be on the first Thursday of the month.
• Trading volume shifts to the new contract at market open on rollover day (9:30 a.m. EST).
• New day trading or swing trading positions opened on rollover day should utilize the new contract expiration month irrespective of when you plan to close your position.
• If opened within a few days of rollover day, new swing positions should be opened using the new contract.

Market myths and rumors abound as expiration and rollover dates come due. Savvy futures traders will always check the source, study their market indicators and confirm the probabilities of the rumor before acting.

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