The power of the media to lead public opinion has been demonstrated time and again. While the fourth estate would argue that they are merely reporting the news, they do, in fact, manipulate — and to a certain extent create — the news, particularly with regard to the economy and the markets. The market is a reflection (some would say, prediction) of national and world economy. In part, market movement is driven by the emotions of people, their confidence or fear, satisfaction or greed.
The media is quick to focus on the emotional volatility of the populace, and in doing so, often fans the flames of public opinion, increasing emotional panic simply by reporting it. An excellent example is the subprime mortgage disaster in the home loan industry. When first reported with big, black headlines and dire warnings, the reality was that only a small percentage of the total number of mortgages had been made to subprime lenders, and only a tiny percentage of those were actually moving into foreclosure. Initially, most realtors and loan industry officials were not particularly worried and saw what was happening as an uncomfortable but necessary real estate market correction after several years of wildly inflated housing prices.
Widespread media coverage frightened many homeowners, realtors and lenders, leading to all out panic in a fairly short time. The media started issuing dire predictions that the disaster would affect the economy and the market responded. As a broad group, the “people” have always demonstrated a herd mentality. It’s what drives trends. One person acts uniquely, others think he must be on to something important and are quick to follow suit. A trickle turns into a stampede and pretty soon the herd is on the move!
That’s what happened in our subprime example. By constantly increasing its focus on the subprime problem, by continually predicting negative economic repercussions, media attention actually increased public panic, which affected the markets, which impacted the economy, which increased public panic … and so on in a vicious cycle. By dint of its overzealous attention, the media helped the disaster it had forecast become reality.
Futures traders need to look beyond the media hype and dispassionately observe the movement of the market. Don’t allow yourself to get caught up in the emotions of the herd. Trust yourself, trust your system and stick with it.
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